Early Estimation of Strong Aftershock Duration Time     

Zhou Cuiying  Wang Hongwei  Wang Mei  and Zhang YuxiaSeismological Bureau of Shandong Province  Jinan  China Center for Analysis  Prediction  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1997,(4)

In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.  相似文献   

近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征   总被引：403，自引：14，他引：403  

任国玉  郭军  徐铭志  初子莹  张莉  邹旭凯  李庆祥  刘小宁 《气象学报》2005,63(6):942-956

采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料,系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征。结果表明,中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,增温速率接近0.22℃/(10 a),比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高。地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年,其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致。降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感。1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来略有增加。降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定,东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加,而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少。分析还发现,近50a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势,但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加。中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似,减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东,新疆次之。影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂,人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候,但考虑到尚存的不确定性,目前仍不能给出明确结论。中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响,平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降,而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要。  相似文献   

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion     

Jonathan Hancock  Julian J. Bommer 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(6):637-664

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

Alice E. Brown  Lu Zhang  Thomas A. McMahon  Andrew W. Western  Robert A. Vertessy   《Journal of Hydrology》2005,310(1-4):28-61

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.  相似文献   

Two-dimensional ground motion at a soft viscoelastic layer/hard substratum site in response to SH cylindrical seismic waves radiated by deep and shallow line sources—II. Numerical results     

Jean-Philippe Groby  Armand Wirgin 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):192-224

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Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model     

Ane P. Wiersma  Didier M. Roche  Hans Renssen 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(1):118-127

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The response in floodplain respiration of an alpine river to experimental inundation under different temperature regimes          下载免费PDF全文

Tatjana Simčič  Nataša Mori  Christian Hossli  Christopher T. Robinson  Michael Doering 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5438-5450

The respiratory potential [i.e. electron transport system activity (ETSA)] of soils and sediments from five floodplain habitats (channel, gravel, islands, riparian forest and grassland) of the Urbach River, Switzerland, and actual respiration rate (R) of the same samples exposed to experimental inundation were measured. Measurements were carried out at three incubation temperatures (4°C, 12°C and 20°C), and ETSA/R ratios (i.e. exploitation of the overall metabolic capacity) were investigated to better understand the effects of temperature and inundation on floodplain functional heterogeneity. Furthermore, ETSA/R ratios obtained during experimental inundation were compared with ETSA/R ratios from field measurements to investigate the exploitation in total metabolic potential at different conditions. Lowest ETSA and R were measured in samples from channel and gravel habitats, followed by those from islands. Substantially higher values were measured in soils from riparian forest and grassland. Both ETSA and R increased with increasing temperature in samples from all habitats, while the ETSA/R ratio decreased because of a rapid response in microbial community respiration to higher temperatures. The metabolic capacity exploitation (i.e. ETSA/R) during experimental inundation was lowest in predominantly terrestrial samples (riparian forest and grassland), indicating the weakest response to wetted conditions. Comparison of experimentally inundated and field conditions revealed that in rarely flooded soils, the metabolic capacity was less exploited during inundation than during non‐flooded conditions. The results suggest high sensitivity in floodplain respiration to changes in temperature and hydrological regime. ETSA/R ratios are considered good indicators of changes in metabolic activity of floodplain soils and sediments, and thus useful to estimate the impact of changes in hydrological regime or to evaluate success of floodplain restoration actions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

城区内涝淹没模拟算法     

张振鑫  吴立新  李志锋  杨宜舟  江锦成  许志华 《测绘科学》2016,41(6):87-91

针对城区内涝淹没范围和水深模拟问题,该文提出了一种基于约束Delaunay不规则三角网与三棱柱的城区内涝淹没模拟算法。该算法以沿地面三角形的顶点垂直向上引垂线形成的三棱柱为计算单元,通过"等体积"的方法,建立时间序列切片下的淹没水深和积水量的关系,据此实现淹没范围和水深模拟。以北京师范大学(简称"北师大")主校区为例,对单汇水区的水面高程上升模拟结果与实际观测值进行对比,基本吻合;并与传统栅格DEM的淹没效果进行了对比,表明该算法正确有效。  相似文献   

Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay          下载免费PDF全文

Fang Tan  Wan‐Huan Zhou  Ka‐Veng Yuen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1235-1254

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.  相似文献   

1981-2015年西藏全区气候季节的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史继清  甘臣龙  边多  除多  豆永丽  普布次仁  郭艺楠 《冰川冻土》2018,40(6):1110-1119

利用1981-2015年西藏全区39个气象观测站的观测资料,采用修订气候季节划分方法,分析了39站季节起始日与季节长度,代表站的季节极端日期、极端长度、季节早晚、季节长短等级变化趋势及其对农牧业、旅游业的影响。结果表明：西藏近35年来,春、夏、秋、冬季平均起始日分别为2月25日、5月31日、9月15日和11月28日,平均长度分别为99 d、106 d、73 d和87 d,且区域差异比较明显。波密、加查、尼木、狮泉河、申扎站春季的起始日在提前,分别为-5.8、-1.2、-3.3、-2.5、-2.3 d·（10a）^-1;秋冬季的开始日在推迟,分别为1.4（1.5）、2.1（4.2）、1.9（4.4）、1.0（2.5）、1.2（4.0）d·（10a）^-1。春（夏、秋）季持续时间在延长,分别为7.0（1.3、0.1）、0.04（3.3、2.1）、1.0（4.6、2.5）、0.1（3.4、1.6）、1.7（1.8、2.8）d·（10a）^-1;冬季持续时间在缩短,分别为-8.5、-5.4、-7.8、-5.1、-6.2 d·（10a）^-1。春季的提前与季节长度的延长,使作物播种期与牧草返青期提早;秋季的推迟与季节长度的缩短使得作物复种机会大;同时对农作物的种植结构、作物品种熟性布局以及旅游业都有一定的影响。  相似文献